Overview

The forecast predicts how much available inventory you will have in a future time range. The forecast is based on the delivery statistics from the past and takes the reserved volumes of booked insertions into account.

Forecast predictions require at least 3 days of traffic data. For websites and pages with a traffic history less than 3 days, the forecast predictions are not available. Forecast results are less precise for approximately four weeks after the launch of a new website or page.

Key concepts

Forecast criteria

The forecast supports the following criteria:

• Time range: maximum next six months, from now
• Inventory: websites, pages, formats, packs
• Targeting criteria
• Capping criteria

For more information about forecast criteria, see Forecast criteria availability. 

Total volume

The total volume calculated by the forecast is an estimation of future impressions for the set of forecast criteria you selected. Capping criteria are not considered in the Total volume. When you add a capping criterion in a forecast query, only the Available volume will change.  

Occupied volume

The occupied volume is the volume used by existing insertions for the given set of selected forecast criteria.

The occupied volume is not to be confused with the booked volume. The latter is the goal volume that insertions are supposed to reach. The booked volume is not displayed in the forecast, but you can determine overbooking by checking the icons in the Overbooking column in the insertion list of the forecast.  

Available volume

The available volume is the volume you can still sell for the selected forecast criteria. By default, it includes the No ad volume (volume not occupied by insertions at all) and the volumes of Non-guaranteed insertions. For more information on changes of the priority threshold, see section "About the slider" below.  

Overbooking

Overbooking occurs whenever the total volume of all competing insertions is higher than what is available. As a result, the competing insertions will not be able to reach their individual volumes. 

Data freshness

Data freshness varies by forecast version:

• Total volume: for both free and premium forecast versions, the computation of the total volume is based on the traffic history until yesterday at 23:59. 
• Occupied volume: data freshness depends on the forecast version:
  • Free forecast version: occupied volume is calculated over night and finished by 8 AM of your network's timezone.
  • Premium forecast version: any modification to any insertion—for example, changes to the goal volume or targeting criteria—triggers an immediate forecast update. On average, the update result is available within 5 minutes following the insertion modification.
  • Free and premium forecast version: the Last computation date shows when the last computation of the occupied volume has been finished 

Direct forecast access

To access the forecast directly, go to Campaigns > Forecast and set up your query:

• Computation period: adjust the default time zone if needed. Use the Custom computation period to set specific time frames.
• Select criteria: if a criterion is not displayed here, see Forecast criteria availability.
• Occup. / Avail. Slider: insertions on priority levels beneath the slider position are ignored in the forecast query. Their volumes are considered as available. The slider feature is useful when used with capping criteria: move the slider just beneath the priority of the insertion you are about to create and set the capping criteria. 

The metrics Total volume, Occupied volume, Available volume and Revenue are updated as you compose your query.

Forecast access from an insertion

Once you have created and configured an insertion, you can access the forecast using the Competing insertions link on the right side. Click on this link to open the Forecast with the insertion's criteria pre-selected and summarized in the top right area: formats, websites, pages, packs, targeting criteria, and capping.

If the insertion has more than one targeting type and if you are using the free forecast version, the Inventory availability button redirects you to the forecast, but without any targeting criteria selected. Only the premium version supports more than one targeting criterion.

Switch to the List of insertions tab to see, if the insertion (from which you entered the forecast) is listed at the top of the list. If you find it there, this insertion's booked volume is already considered as occupied in your forecast query. You will not find it there, if the insertion was created after the last forecast update.

Keyword targeting editor

This special editor supports a fast syntax and a logical syntax. Here are the available operators:

Fast syntax

• "," (comma) meaning "or"
• ";" (semicolon) meaning "and"
• "Not" meaning exclusion; this operator can be used only globally on an "or"

Logical syntax

• "and" meaning "and"
• "or" meaning "or"
• "not" meaning exclusion; you can apply this operator to an expression in parenthesis

The logical syntax is more powerful since you can express any possible condition.

Keep in mind: Do not mix the two types of syntax in a single query.

The keyword text editor supports both keywords and keyword groups (as defined in Administration > Keyword groups). You can use both delivery names and display names. If your display name includes spaces or text in parenthesis, make sure you remove these when making your forecast query; example: Instead of "Age (nugg)=25-34 yo" use "Age=25-34yo".

"multi"-keys

A key with "(multi)" after its name means that the key was passed with multiple values in the same ad call; for instance, in an ad call with "city=london;city=paris", the key "city" is a multi-key.

You can query multi-keys with the AND operator to get a forecast based on ad calls which included both values in the same call (example: city=london AND city=paris). Querying non-multi-keys with the AND operator will result in a forecast of "0".  

Keywords with integer values (range targeting)

Equativ's keyword targeting supports both string values (e. g. car=mercedes) and integer (numerical) values (e. g. price=1000). Also, you can target integer values within a range (e. g. "100 < price ≤ 1000" to target all integers in the range of 100 to 1000). Targeted ranges are created automatically in the forecast.

The keyword text editor also supports ranges for all keys with integer values - even if you have never used range targeting for the given keyword

Overbooking

Overbooking occurs when the booked volume of an insertion is higher than the available volume calculated by the forecast. This leads to underdelivery of your new insertion or underdelivery of the competing insertions.  

General recommendations

• booking 90% of the available volume is a reasonable practice in most cases
• booking a little more than the available volume may work out fine since Equativ's algorithm will move the insertions if their scope is wide enough (many pages; targeting not too strict)

Insertion priorities when overbooking

The insertion priorities, High, Normal and Low are used for delivery of volumes with even distribution over the time frame (paced delivery). In case of overbooking, if you set your new insertion to:

• priority High, existing Normal insertions will be penalized
• priority Low, it will probably not deliver its own target
• priority Normal, the penalty will be shared

Investigating overbooking situations

Both the free and premium versions provide the same tools to investigate overbooking situations. However, the premium forecast is updated more frequently and allows for multiple targeting types (see Forecast version comparison).

Using the list of insertions

• go to your problem insertion and use the forecast button as described above in "Access from insertion".
• check the Last computation date/time at the top of the forecast; the more recent the update, the more accurate the data you will get
• switch to the List of insertions tab
• Your problem insertion will be at the top of the list (highlighted yellow). If you cannot find it, wait for the next forecast update.

In the table, you will see all the competing insertions with the columns: Overbooking, Volume, Revenue and Priority. RTB+ insertions are displayed only if they are connected to a guaranteed deal. RTB+ insertions connected to a preferred deal or a private auction are not displayed.

Overbooking column

The icons (red, orange and green) indicate the likelihood that the given insertion will reach its booked volume:

• green: everything is fine (insertion will reach 100% of its booked volume)
• orange: your insertion will only reach between 80% and 100% of its booked volume
• red: your insertion is seriously underdelivering, it will reach less than 80 % of its booked volume

In case of insertions with a group volume (a volume applied to multiple insertions), the icons will be based on this group volume.

Mouse over the icons to see a tooltip providing the absolute numbers.

To get an estimation of the remaining volume of an insertion in the list, select the entire forecast time range (i. e. today plus 6 months into the future) as the forecast Computation period. Then look at the number in the Volume column (this column takes the option Stop insertion at end date, even if all impressions are not delivered into account).

Volume column

The volume column displays the volume the insertion occupies (expressed in impressions).

If your insertion has a click volume, it is converted into impressions and displayed as an impression volume in this column. If the insertion is part of a group volume, the Volume column displays the volume of the insertions itself.

The numbers are only based on the currently selected criteria and computation period (summarized at the top right/left of the forecast page). Keep in mind that the individual insertions listed here, have their own scopes: they may be delivering on more pages or have less strict targeting or run for longer than the criteria and computation period you have selected.

The column does not indicate the delivery trend (likelyhood of underdelivery). For underdelivery investigation, only use the icons/percentages/tooltip in the Overbooking column.

Revenue column

The revenue column displays the income associated with the insertion. Note: the cost data has to be supplied by the user during the insertion's setup.

Priority column

The priority column displays the priority of the insertion.  

Forecast button 

Click on the forecast button left of the name of a competing insertion. As a result:

• the criteria and time range in the forecast page will be replaced by those of this insertion
• the insertion will move to the top and will be highlighted yellow
• the entire list is updated showing the values/indicators of this insertion

Sorting the table

• sort the table by volume (descending order) to focus on insertions with large volumes
• check the Overbooking column for these insertions with large volumes to determine the degree of potential underdelivery

Custom reports

With custom reports, you can retrieve forecast data (csv download) with customized columns and metrics.

• selected criteria displayed on the top right of the forecast UI are taken into account as filters
• priority group represents the priority brackets Exclusive, High, Normal, etc.
• channel represents direct insertion vs. RTB+ insertion
• in the section General > Keywords, delivery names are used (only if keyword groups have been set up)
• some columns are for information purposes only: they do not change the aggregation in the report

Split per criteria

The split by criteria view displays the volume by day, format, pack etc. Add the option Show detail by priority so see the occupied volume by priority. Use the tooltips in the charts to get absolute figures.  

Miscellaneous

Standard vs. OneCall tagging

As a general rule, OneCall tagging is the preferred tagging type. In particular, the forecast of links and exclusions can be imprecise if Standard Call is used.

Custom delivery timeframes

The insertion you are investigating may have custom delivery timeframes (e. g. delivery only on weekdays or at specific day times). If an insertion is displayed as overbooked even though there seems to be enough free inventory, check the insertion's custom deliver timeframes in the insertion summary.

Capping

The forecast supports the frequency capping settings of the insertions. Check the insertion summary in case an insertion is displayed as overbooked, even though there is enough available inventory.

Linked insertions

To see if your insertion has links, open the insertion summary. Overbooking may occur because your insertion A has enough available inventory to deliver but is linked to insertion B which does not have enough inventory. As a result, insertion A is displayed as overbooked.

Also, overbooking may occur, because a third insertion C with a lower priority takes the volume of your insertion A. This can happen if Insertion C (with its lower priority) is linked to a fourth insertion D and the delivery of insertion C is forced in order to respect its link. Note that the forecast of linked insertions may be imprecise if you are using Standard tagging (use OneCall tagging instead).

Exclusive links

Exclusive links lead to "empty" formats. The forecast is able to consider these. Whenever it detects, that there is a scheduled insertion with exclusive links, it will look at the empty formats and reduce its availability predictions for those formats accordingly.

Keep in mind that the volumes of exclusive links are considered by the forecast depending on the forecast version you use:

• free forecast version => you need to wait until the next day (updates run over night)
• premium forecast version => a new or changed exclusive link triggers an immediate update. The effects are then visible after approx. 5 minutes.

Whenever there is a volume blocked as a consequence of exclusive links ("empty formats"), these will show up as an "insertion" in the list of insertions. These are not "real" insertions, but simply the way how the blocked volume is displayed. For each of these "insertions", you will find the forecast icon as well as a link named [Exclusive link]. 

This page shows the insertions currently assigned to the link category.

Note that the forecast of exclusive links may be imprecise if you are using Standard Call tagging (use OneCall tagging instead).

In-stream video insertions

At this time, the forecast predictions are not accurate in case of in-stream video insertions. Equativ's new, revamped forecast will resolve this issue. 

Forecast API

You can make queries using the forecast API documented in the Automate forecasting (API) article. Note that the Web API query feature (see button at the top of the Forecast page) is no longer operational and will not be fixed, as Equativ is preparing to launch a fully revamped version of the Forecast soon.  

Best practices

To have the forecast and the overbooking indicators as precise und up to date as possible, follow these recommendations: